Subject: Re: [LPNY DISCUSS] Oil and Water (was: the best system)
Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2003 17:51:50 -0400
To:        <lpny_discuss@yahoogroups.com>
From:     Bob Armstrong <bob@cosy.com>

 I just got back from a small cap oil and ( mostly ) gas=
 conference
 up at the Harvard club .

 All predict gas will stay high tho long term Canada tar sands
 contain an enormous amount . Because no one in the US can build
 any other sort of power plant , usage is accelerating . Several
 commented on how Warren Buffett's purchase ( at a distressed
  price ) of William's pipeline from Wyoming to the west coast
 and his doubling of its capacity was cutting the transportation
 costs 70% .
 In some areas of Wyoming wells are going in as densely as
 one per five acres . Doing something with all the water that
 comes up with the gas is the major environmental headache .
 
 Opinions were split on the direction of the price of oil with
 increased supply expected from Iraq , Iran and Russia .

 I found most interesting that China and India are increasing
 consumption at about 10% per year , and while China only
 became a net importer about a decade ago , it has now passed
 Japan as second only to US in the global market .

 A number of the Arab Oil states , and perhaps more so many
 of the rich princes , have in fact taken steps to diversify
 their resources . One , for instance is a major investor in
 CitiCorp . Iran , of course , wants to , rationally , build
 its nuclear power capacity .

 http://cosy.com/Science/XOMenergyForcast0305.gif from Exxon
 Mobil's 2002 Annual Report is the best summary I know of of
 the future of the energy market . 

 Over the next couple of decades I am very bullish on
 nuclear . I think the RoW will not be as irrational about
 it as US and will end up with a substantially lower cost for
 energy than we will have .

--

On Tue, 23 Sep 2003 10:04:30 -0400, Blay Tarnoff wrote:
>=A0Actually, I think oil will get cheaper as time goes on, unless
>=A0government interference in oil markets increases.
>
>=A0Blay
>
>=A0---------------------------------------------
>
>=A0Bonnie wrote:
>=A0>
>=A0>=A0On Tue, Sep 23, 2003 at 09:33:07AM -0400, Blay Tarnoff=
 wrote:
>=A0>=A0>=A0I believe oil is practically infinite; it will never run=
 out.
>=A0>
>=A0>=A0That still doesn't invalidate what I said about the
>=A0>=A0eventual intersection of price curves.
>=A0>
>=A0>=A0Diminishing returns are usually a safe bet...
>=A0>
>=A0>=A0Bonnie

--=A0
=A0Bob Armstrong -- http://CoSy.com -- 212-285-1864
Return our Right to Relax :
=A0http://ny.lp.org/cgi-bin/petition.cgi?Against_the_Smoking_Ban
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=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A0=A09/23/2003 5:03:05 PM