are the anabolic and catabolic halves
of the respiratory cycle of life .
What our restoring a little of the carbon from previous lush epochs is
doing is speeding the respiration of the biosphere .
The inevitable compensation for our returning some carbon to the
biosphere is an increase in green
plant growth .
Presentation @ Heartland Institute's 9th International Conference on Climate Change The Basic Basics
of planetary temperature in a few lines of APL showing that Al Gore's witchdoctor James Hansen's claim that Venus is a runaway greenhouse fails undergraduate physics
Power Point : How to calculate the temperature of a radiantly heated colored ball ( like our earth ) Presented at Pikes Peak Economics Club . Shows with high school level computations of basic 19th century physics that The notion that Venus is an example of a runaway "greenhouse effect" DOES NOT COMPUTE . The promulgation of that claim is scientific misconduct .
YouTube of presentation :
Simply summing the energy
impinging on the planet gives a
times closer to our observed temperature than the maximally biased
equation foisted by "climate science" academia . We are about 3% ( 10
centigrade ) warmer than a gray ball in our orbit .
sense dictates that a
trace gas needed for life on the planet
would not be the cause for destroying life on the planet. Common sense
dictates that what has happened before without man can happen again
with man. Common sense would dictate that you not believe me, or any
one else, but go look for YOURSELF. Joe
Bastardi , AccuWeather.com
CO2 is the
gas . It is a grade school fact that every green tree , every
blade of grass , indeed all life is ultimately CO2
+ H2O combined by sunlight plus a bit of ash and
it is proven in
both laboratory and practice that plants thrive on more than twice our
current 3 or 4 molecules per 10,000 . Life could not have started on
earth without a (
20% ) CO2 rather than O2 atmosphere .
converted it to an oxygen atmosphere
bouncing along the minimal CO2
necessary to keep the plants alive . So any downside to the few
percent of the natural CO2 budget we are restoring to our atmosphere
from carbon sequestered in previous incredibly lush epochs must be
this indisputable greening of the planet .
Is the virtue of lusher forests and
agriculture outweighed by the effect of CO2’s couple of
spectral lines on the the mean temperature of the planet ?
physics going back to 1859 says the temperature of our planet
is inexorably constrained to be about 1/21st whatever temperature the
decides to be . ( See my Basic
Temperature Physics of Radiantly Heated Balls for
the computations . ) Astoundingly
, the most ubiquitous explanation of
the need for a "greenhouse” effect is based on the false notion that a
radiantly heated white ball will come to a lower temperature than if it
were black . Perhaps consequentially , it appears impossible to find
either quantitative analytical theory or experimental validation of the
purported "greenhouse" effect on mean temperature .
To contemplate imposing enormous costs on the population for the benes
and bureaucracies of the anti-life alarmist elite would be literally
criminal without requiring before-hand quantitative
experimental verification of the supposed effect of minor
changes in atmospheric spectrum on mean temperature . The
needed experiments would be quite simple and quick . On the scale of a
ping-pong ball the atmosphere is about as thick as a heavy coat of
lacquer and whole issue of planetary temperature boils down to the
effect of slight changes in its color .
| 20110304 | The best graph I've
showing most of the relevant spectra other than our surface . That CO2
already has little more ability to effect our temperature is shown by
the fact that its peaks are already absorbing 100% .
| 20110318 | Give me
these specta , and Il'll calculate their equalibrium temperature . Add
the spectrum of the surface and I'll give you the mean temperature of
the planet . I'll pay $300 to any student who masters the algorthms and
does the calculations . I suggest a good highschool project would be to
experimentally confirm the calculations .
Armstrong speaking at Marty Hertzberg's "Climategate" and
Scientific Inquiry presentation
Click for YouTube ( last portion of 7th part ) Full presentation
one draws a sphere around the earth and its atmosphere ,
Stefan-Boltzmann/Kirchhoff specifies the mean temperature over that
sphere as a function of the five millionths of the sky subtended by the
at around 6000k and the all the rest at near 0 . It works out that
objects in our orbit are constrained to be about 1%21 the temperature
of the sun . It is a mistaken notion that average
Absorptivity=Emissivity ( gray value ) will affect that ratio . I have
this basic function now implemented in several Array Programming
Languages on my http://CoSy.com
and would love to see someone translate it into more common languages
like Mathematica or MatLab . It currently handles any angular
distribution of gray value , eg , differences between day and night
sides , or latitude . I am awaiting indications of outside interest to
elaborate the vocabulary to full spectra so
that , eg , the extreme which any lumped spectral distribution ( 1.0
the sun ) could produce , or the calculated effect of some delta in CO2
( The above would be rejected as
gibberish on a realityDenier blog ; their talent sure ain’t basic
physics . )
A couple of major points :
Lumped earth/atmosphere temperature is linear with sun temperature
. Any nonlinearities within this envelope must cancel by this
boundary . We are about 8c warmer than a uniform
gray body in our orbit . Any discussion of
“runaways” and “feedbacks” macht nichts . The SB/K
equation has held up to at most a few percent of earth/sun temperature
ratio . The idea that we are at some particular ratio where
nonlinearity occurs is non-sensical .
It’s useful to keep in mind that the
total change in temperature
we’ve seen a century is only about 1%300 = 0.33% . I’m delighted that
the sun is that constant .
temperatures with THICKNESS of red line total change in mean in
century . by MIT's Richard Lindzen . Click for YouTube .
most ancient "precautionary
principle" is "First do no harm"
, and "cap and trade" and other less
bureaucratic "carbon" taxes are explicitly designed to do harm . So ,
like prescribing chemotherapy , you better make sure the patient is
actually sick first . And it is NOT .
Manhattan Libertarians' Serf City
tabloids included in the bling bags of 2nd Heartland global Climate
classic Stefan-Boltzmann and Kirchoff laws which very tightly constrain
mean temperature of the planet . The vocabulary has been verified inKand
also translated to the somewhat more accessible language J
by Mike Day . See the Forum .
the implementation to spectra so that the effect of changes in the
saturation of CO2's
couple of skinny spectral lines can be quantitatively and
experimentally tested is quite straight forward . If you'd like to
support getting it done quickly , get in touch . -- Bob A .
| Around June I
finally gained an understanding of the appropriate analysis for colored
balls . The statements about gray bodies remains the same but I now see
colored balls will come to a different mean temperature depending on
the difference in correlation between them and their source of
irradiance and their "night" side . Given that CO2 has essentially just
2 narrow absorption bands which are pretty fully saturated at
concentrations which are too low to sustain plant life ( about half the
current concentration ) , I expect the quantitative effect of changes
in the current concentration to be very small . But Now I know how to
calculate it . )
indicated here , before
this time I had not
figured out the relationship between the correlatons of an object's
spectrum with those of its heat sources and sinks . I therefore did not
see how a colored ball could be hotter than the gray body ( black body
) temperature and had some comments that I had not seen an argument how
that could happen . It says more about the dificulty in
finding a lucid
, quantitative , public domain , correct explanation of the physics
than any thing else .
: Heartand Conference Follow up . Gerlich & Tscheuschner have
detailed physical derivation of my analysis . Am Studying .
: 2 excellent new articles .
: 2 more excellent links
: The arguments against the Global Socialist Warming Fear Mongers is
becoming overwhelming . All they have is the Global Statists money and
megaphones . Their duplicity and distortions are being continually
20080125 | Another Junto
discussion with Perry Metzger led me to analyse more closely the logic
of the Temperature
of the Earth discussion on the Wikipedia page on the
Stefan Boltzmann law . My arguments on the associated
Talk page have caused significant changes in that
article already . More is needed . Briefy
The idea that the
temperature of an object can depend on its albedo , in particular the
4th root of its albedo , leads to absurdities such as the following :
If the inner chamber of a vacuum bottle were coated with magnesium
oxide with an albedo of about .9 then on the basis of a 4th root
relationship , one would expect it's interior to settle at about 0.56
the temperature of the room the bottle is in , say about -100
Some say the world will end in fire, Some say in ice. From what I've tasted of desire I hold with those who favor fire. But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate To say that for destruction ice Is also great And would suffice. Robert Frost
I want to pause
and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been
called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely
pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks.
Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of
scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is
already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees
on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had.
Crichton : Aliens Cause Global Warming , Caltech
It essentially follows from the Zeroth
of thermodynamics which implies that without a source of heat things
come to thermal equilibrium with their surroundings that , in
particular , the mean surface temperature of the earth is totally
determined by the size and temperature of the sun and our distance from
The Wikipedia article
under the heading Derivation of temperature relation between
earth and sun is the first place I have seen the geometry
worked out . This provides the null hypothisis against which any
claimed deviation of mean global temperature ascribed to changes in the
composition of the atmosphere must be measured . Indeed , by Kirchhoff's
law of thermal radiation
that a poor reflector is a good emitter, and visa versa
, I believe NO deviation is possible . The effect of essentially a more
insulative atmosphere is warmer nights and in fact suppressed daytime
peak temperatures and more uniform global temperature distribution , ie
, warmer poles compensated by somewhat cooler tropics . |
bottom line ( from the Wikipedia derivation ) is that the mean
temperature of homogeniously colored sphere is given by
I have yet to see anything other than hand waving to explain how any
changes to the atmosphere can alter that . Note that this is
probably the first place you have seen what must be the Null Hypothesis
for any theory of planetary temperature . |
| 20071002 | I've
given up doing any fancy editing and splicing of the video of the
experiment I did last spring with black , white and silver ping pong
balls in the Colorado sun last spring . I've just uploaded the last
clip I took because it was clouding up and I had completed all the
relavant permutations I could think of . The temperatures indicated are
pretty typical tho . ( note the thermometer on the left
tended to read 0.2c below the others . ) The GW
alarmists claim that minute changes in the reflectivity of the planet
will make major changes in its mean temperature . I found no difference
between a flat black painted and a natural white ping-pong ball and at
most about 2c with a "chrome" painted ball . I also got a feeling for
what a small change the at most 0.8c increase in temperature this
century is . It's hard to get thermometer reading to be stable within
less than ~ 0.2c . I'd really like to see this experiment done
"professionally" in a vacuum , and I'd really like
to see the equations which predict exactly how much heating or cooling
different paint jobs will produce . Despite the lifestyles of millions
riding on this science , I have failed to find such basic equations
anywhere on the web .
There is a very substantial seasonal
effect due to the asymmetry of distribution of land and ocean and the
very reflective Antarctic , and the resulting difference in albedo , of
the north and south hemispheres combined with the 23.5 degree tilt of
the earth's axis . See this
email exchange for a discussion . The note immediately below
goes thru the physics .
The very illuminating discussion on
"alternative energy" with Perry Metzger , who is far more
computationally facile than I am , starts at message
2351 on the NYC Junto group , It first
discusses how much solar energy is available at midwinter in New York .
Perry computes the value from the basic physics ; I do it by table look
up on the web , but our answers agree within a factor of 2 .
Even more interesting is his
computation in message
2377 of the temperature of 2 disks with white
and black sides , one with its black side facing the sun , and the
other with its white side towards the sun . There are just a few more
emails in the thread ending with message 2393 , but it is pretty well
summarized in my reply , message
The evidence is becoming
overwhelming that CO2 does NOT affect mean global temperature .
on the other hand , evidence is mounting that it IS making the planet
The only real question is if
rationality can prevail before the Global Governments do too much harm
I agree with Professor Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who said, "future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early twenty-first century’s developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a rollback of the industrial age."
"While, therefore, the group of
people who have been selected for diminished lives, suffering, and
death from energy rationing and the resulting technological decline is
larger than that ordinarily associated with genocide, the number of
likely deaths is also much larger than in previous genocides. We think
the use of this term is appropriate and will not be confusing to the
"the father of the science of
Climatologist George Kukla still believes an ice age is likely :
"The only thing to worry about global warming is the damage that can be
done by worrying. Why are some scientists worried? Perhaps because they
feel that to stop worrying may mean to stop being paid."
Interview with Christopher
of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming and
history of the "hockey stick"
Fred Singer : ... "By contrast, the federal climate-change program
report shows quite clearly that greenhouse models cannot explain the
observed patterns of warming. (See esp. Fig. 5.4G at www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport.)
This disparity leads to the inescapable conclusion that most of the
warming is of non-greenhouse origin and therefore part of a natural
climate cycle. ...
... There is no
evidence confirming a positive linkage between the level of carbon
dioxide and temperature changes. If there is such a linkage, it is a
reverse nature. In other words, it is not carbon dioxide that
influences the temperature on Earth, but it just the reverse:
temperature fluctuations are caused by solar activity influence the
concentration of carbon dioxide.
... Another facet of
the project is to determine the economic feasibility of running a farm
on wind-generated electricity. That idea is not proving to be
promising, according to Kingman.
"It doesn't make sense economically to displace (existing) power on the
farm," Kingman said.
Unless a farmer could sell extra power or had grant money, he could not
offset the expense of building a turbine and its maintenance and the
cost of wiring the wind-power source to the farm, Kingman explained.