/ ======================== / wed.jan.20030108 / ======================== /
Liberty : Rotting Apple : The future of New York City. Chistopher Baldwin ,
National Review .
16-20 / Imagine New York Winter Garden design Exhibit then at
101 Murray @ Greenwich St. John's University downtown campus .
18-21 / Joseph & Donna McElroy video / A Taste of Art Café 147 Duane
18-20 / 59 Franklyn , B2 ; Amos Eno : Soile YliMayry
/ ======================== / fri.jan.20030110 / ======================== /
18-20 / Inframundo , 106 Spring #6S / Dream Interpretation / Pedro Lujan
/ ======================== / sat.jan.20030111 / ======================== /
1230 - 19 / Manhattan Libertarian Party Annual Convention ; 1050 Restaurant
( 10th @ 50th ) $45 before Jan 4 , $50 after , including meal .
17-19 / MONIQUE GOLDSTROM 560 bwy #303 / Jamie Korb
18-20 / Feldman Gallery 31 Mercer . Edwin Schlossberg .
/ ======================== / tue.jan.20030114 / ======================== /
0730-16 / MS .NET CodeFest 234 W 42
18-20 / Kenny Schacter 14 Charles Lane ( West < < Washington )
/ ======================== / thu.jan.20030116 / ======================== /
18-21 / 37 W 20 / Joe Strand & Nicholas Bergery , Photos
/ ======================== / sun.jan.20030119 / ======================== /
Unified Independent Party conference , NYC
/ ======================== / tue.jan.20030121 / ======================== /
- 24 / LinuxWorld Javits
/ ======================== / thu.jan.20030123 / ======================== /
1730 - 19 / NYU Math Finance Seminar 251 Mercer , Rm 102 : John Moody Oregon
Grad Inst : Minimizing Downside Risk via Reinforcement Learning
/ ======================== / sat.jan.20030125 / ======================== /
16 - 19 / Skylight Gal 1368 Fulton , Bed Stuy
/ ======================== / thu.jan.20030130 / ======================== /
/ 0957 / CSPAN : David Garman Asst Energy Sec for Efficiency & Renewable
Energy is incompetent .
1730 - 19 / NYU Math Finance Seminar 251 Mercer , Rm 102 ; J. Doyne Farmer ;
Santa Fe Institute : Explaining the statistical properties of markets
via random low intelligence agents
/ ======================== / sat.feb.20030201 / ======================== /
/ 1136 / Second Shuttle failure . Apparently damage at take off .
The world is passing strange . It is as if the fabric of reality itself
were condeming America's abandonment of the First Clause of the
Bill of Rights : No Government use of taken ( tax ) money in support of
any religion , either here or overseas .
Columbia 28th trip . 77th total by 3 in 17 years since Challenger .
& 2 , 10-16 / 4701 - Year of Ram / Columbus Park ( Mulberry & Worth )
/ ======================== / tue.feb.20030204 / ======================== /
17th CoSy MidWinter Party
will be at Tony's @ 176+1%2 Mulberry , the Little Italy landmark
I described in my City Council testimony against the extension of the Drug War to tobacco in bars . Figure I'll get there around 19:00 .
( nb: MidWinter , February 4 , is a Tuesday this year . )
One restless night last August , in the midst of this year of US Government Gone Crazy and the global and local depression it is causing , I had the vision here , which people who know me know is not that improbable :
If I grabbed the center of an "all connect graph" and pulled it into a cone , It would form a very strong and beautiful structure which could be a unifying shell for the World Trade Center site .
A central motivation in my creation of the CoSy environment in the most powerful programming notations existing is to be able to "solve" in a timely fashion complex algorithms such as that to compute the parts list of 492 "beams" required to actually construct the spire . Being able to , I was compelled to show that IT CAN BE DONE .
Many people immediately and viscerally feel like I do that the Spire represents the enduring spirit of our City at the beginning of this 3rd Millennium better than do the elaborated themes of the 9 solicited designs , which tend all too much to the funereal , the fractured and the bent . Frankly the original Yamasaki design , strengthened with all we have learned , would be more majestic than any of the solicited designs .
If the Spire inspires you too , spread the vision .
Pass this invite on to your non-web friends .
Only if People know , can People choose ; only with a very loud voice from many People will the Spire become the legacy of our times .
Hope to see youall at Tony's on Mid Winter , while relaxing with a smoke in a bar does not yet make you and Tony criminals .
Commerce not Conflict ; Peace thru Freedom : Bob Armstrong
& 5 / http:/ Java on wall street
/ ======================== / sat.feb.20030208 / ======================== /
09 - 16 / LEGO League
Junior Robotics Tournament / Riverbank Park , 679 Riverside Drive at 145 .
18-20 / 14 Charles Lane ( map ) Kenny Schacter conTEMPorary .
/ ======================== / wed.feb.20030212 / ======================== /
19-21 / 97 Kenmare , Storefront : Politics of Israeli Architecture
/ ======================== / thu.feb.20030213 / ======================== /
/ 1040 /
From: Bob Armstrong
Subject: Re: [LPNY DISCUSS] LIGHTHOUSE: War "Prosperity"
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 10:27:05 -0500
To: (2) < email@example.com >
lp_manhattan < firstname.lastname@example.org >
On Tue, 11 Feb 2003 13:40:50 +0000, Richard Cooper wrote:
> >>From: "David J. Theroux" < DJTheroux@independent.org >
> >>To: "Lighthouse" < Lighthouse@independent.org >
> >>THE WAR-PROSPERITY FALLACY
Excellent article . Doesn't go far enough .
Life during World War 2 was lousy .
I want to be rich like Switzerland , not poor and
violence riden like Israel and its territories .
Churchill , The Second World War , Vol 6 , Triumph & Tragedy ,
Book 1 , The Tide of Victory , Appendix C , p 712 ;
Prime Minister to Foreign Secretary , 3 Dec. 44 :
I put this down for the record. Of all the neutrals,
Switzerland has the greatest right to distinction.
... She has been a democratic State, standing for freedom
in self-defense among her mountains, and in thought, in
in spite of race, largely on our side .
... I was astonished at U.J.'s [ Stalin's ] savageness
against her, ...
Note : by "race" he means the different European tribes .
We are embroiled in this war between religions , that other
opiate of the masses and organizer of armies , very largely
because of our own violation of the wisdom of separation of
Church and State expressed in the first clause of the first
Our TAKEN tax MONEY has been sent to these theocracies over
the years . Largely to buy arms .
We therefore have lost any claim to moral high ground .
Saddam has been and must be further Castro-ated .
So why are we not pressing for UN monitored elections
there if they want to democratize Iraq ?
Bob Armstrong -- http://CoSy.com -- 212-285-1864
A WTC vision : http://cosy.com/CoSy/ConicAllConnect/
2003/02/12 1:17:48 PM
~~~ LIBERTARIAN PARTY OF NEW YORK ~~~
~~~~~~ NY.LP.org ~~~~~~
To unsubscribe, send an empty message to
C-SPAN Video ( really audio ) Campaign Finance Reform Act Supreme Court Oral Arguments
1930 - 2130 / William Tucker, NY Post editorialist : "State of the City."
NYYRC @ Soldiers, Sailors, Marines and Airmens Club
283 Lexington Ave (bet 36th & 37th St), 2nd Floor
/ ======================== / sun.feb.20030216 / ======================== /
18 / Thom Corn : 'Corn on Cotton' @ FIRE PATROL NO.5 , 307 w.121
( St Nick < < Manhattan ) A,C or D to 125
/ ======================== / wed.feb.20030219 / ======================== /
16 - 19 / Infrastructure Security
19 / Marcia Bartusiak : Einstein's space-time waves . Grad Ctr , 365 5th @ 34 /
/ ======================== / thu.feb.20030220 / ======================== /
0745 / Managed Account Investment & Distribution
1730 - 19 / NYU Math Finance Seminar 251 Mercer , Rm 102 ; Kay Giesecke ,
Cornell University : Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses
/ ======================== / thu.mar.20030306 / ======================== /
1730 - 19 / NYU Math Finance Seminar 251 Mercer , Rm 102 : Marc Potters ;
Science et Finance, Capital Fund Management , : "Statistical Properties of
Order Books and Price Impact "
/ ======================== / mon.mar.20030310 / ======================== /
Example Bush-shit logic : Ari Fliesher :
45 days after the resolution , Iraq is 4000 days overdue
/ ======================== / tue.mar.20030311 / ======================== /
18 / ANTICIPATING NEW YORK 2050: Will Proposals for Ground Zero Stand Up
to The Test of Time? ; The New School , 66 W 12th
Answer : My Conic All Connect
CoSy/Liberty : Blog from young worldly Iraqi in Bagdad
just before the suspension of US Second Amendment for the locals .
/ ======================== / fri.may.20030523 / ======================== /
/ 1743 / -> Rock Drug Law thing @ Mad & 98th / `y02
/ 1850 / Lumsby , Browne / Barbara Brenner - 3 min each
Awilda Gonzales - Hunter Col Grad , Social work - ex con / SNAP
30 yrs /
Judge Jerome Markes Ret `92 / judge 22 yrs , assemblyman LES /
problem starting in `60s / `75 found law constitutional - destroys families
People against Winny Jones - drug factory / A1 15 - life /
went to trial - got 15 vs 1 for doing same as peer women in case who pled
WWII - flier washed out - depth perception .
Angela Thomson - selling drugs for uncle - buy & bust / 2.1 oz
Judge Waneta Newton gave 8 - appealed to top court - changed to 15 - life
12-1300 appeals for clemency after %2 sentence - few granted / - Datelin
Law has to be changed / costs $32k % yr
has helped 3 people get clemency . / cost $900k for time in jail .
Jeffery Aubry lib dem assembly man queens / churning of humans .
A1 most agregious / Sproul case -
/ 1921 / Awilda Gonzalas / went to prison young from PR . molested @ 8 /
pot head when went to prison / 15 / judge wanted to give 3 /
raped @ JohnJay / dirty cop / .94 in prison black & Latino /
Danial Serrano for Assembly mem for this dist /Adam Clayton Powell 3 / 1929 /
myth that drugs just minority - not in college dorms /
War on people of color /
Esperanza Febles - `90 arrexted 125 grams 15 yrs / arrested men , wives
& girl friends / got 6.5 years / other women got 15 even never touched coke
lose custody of children after 1 yr / 5 yrs added for endangering child
/ extra 6mo for Money adiction ? /
Districgt leader William Allen / vote / crazy system /
2000 votes out of ? in East Harlem / it is a war / / 1950 /
Jennifer Arroyo - Rappers : Aaron & Rahim / Questions to Ax .
condolences to familites broken up by law / both got GEDs /
/ 1956 / Speak out /
poem for daughter / ex - military woman - & correction officer /
ashamed made money off of it /
Ralph Thomas - outreach / did 7.5 yrs / dental prosthecics /
people been rocked to sleep
Clarence Davis / son being convicted for 4- 9 yeas /
/ husband doing life - 17 yr old daughter - connections w murder inc .
Canales : .08 E Harlem users . Rockefeller heirs don't want associated
w there name .
68 $ % month min / $74000 for shelter family of 4 /
can't get Batchlors / each one teach one .
got biggest stick so want to knock RoW / / 2033 / / 2148 / @ PS
/ ======================== / tue.jun.20030603 / ======================== /
1800-20 / Fabiani Society : Steven Malanga , Manhattan Inst Senior Fellow
Princeton Club, 15 W 43
18-20 / Fabiani @ Princton - 15 W 43 / / 1857 / Lindsey / bring material
Steve Malanga : City Journal article : NYC budget : council / 1900 /
Welcome to fun city - if preg don't stop & sit on subway stairs
'69 city worker unions - Johnson Commuity based charity contractors
became most powerful political blocks . Late '80s : Koch : Poverty Pimp .
( SM ex forbes ) were moderate dems from working class outer bouroughs
term limits : 38 seats turned over - all from social svc orgs -
City J poll : dem primary : people who wort / .37 work for private sec
( .77 in pop ) /
( Government ) Working family party : ACORN / dems too conservative .
15 of 38 working pty endorsed / 21 signed WFP tax proposal ltr .
Stock xfer tax - need Albany ok too / 50k workers living wage / min + 3.5
David Weprin WS lawyer - must raise wages becuase raised taxes .
Building 90 day law - union not yet invoked .
profoundly trivial group . NYC - the nanny state .
bill 357 : exhibitionist motorcycle law wheelies / gunning , speedy
may sieze and imbound .
Dislosure of prerecorded music sound - public has expectations
must say when canned /
Requriee movie prices in all ads . / 3 min engine idleing law
deposit law on primary & rechargable bateries w notice on battery
Charles Barron ; Hillary's campaign mngr & John Edwards ;
Lot of characters / Goef Miller central character - wants to be Mayor
Have veto proof majority . / will have long impact /
22 have proposed : separation of City from State /
/ 1920 / ?s / pushing BMbrg ? doesn't need push
living wage ? cynical grp - mayor said would cost - revamped to medicade &
state City owned properties exempted from 90 day law for cost - then issued
re term limits just accelerated ? 2001 07 observed no moderates
Albany also moving same direction .
Gifford Miller next mayor ? good chance . Bill Clinton
Henry Stern ? foreign policy - Mugabe , Iraq /
Why no NYT questioning ? no
Shocking but not surprizing Guilianni where effect ?
Metro Repub club ran aganist Goef Miller was Alan
Wall St not main st / can't talk to small busn person / NYC hi cost
environment Corezine - trader - / 1935 /
/ ======================== / wed.jun.20030604 / ======================== /
1400 / Protest against the Rockefeller Drug Laws With Russell Simmons
and the Hip Hop Action Network
Foley Square (across from Federal Courthouse, lower Manhattan)
/ ======================== / thu.jun.20030605 / ======================== /
/ 1055 / Cato , Waldorf / 1105 / Ed Crain : thanks Donald Smith Fndn :
to get to intelligent audience . fndn 77 , WDC 81 / Fndrs got it right -
respect for dignitiy of individual human being / tax code 40000 no
dignity / doing good job getting word out / FAIR : 2nd to Brookings
Web score #1 / Kenote : Patrick Toomey / tax , fin & busn cmttee /
Investemnt Banker & restaurant / SS choice - / use payroll taxes to pay
for real assets / Steve Moore : club for growth /
/ 1111 / Pat Toomey : SS reform / Cato great & Michael Tanner /
need to xform from govn owned defined bene to personally owned contributio
free fall to failure - terible deal for younger , already insolvent
ether collapse or impose massive neg RoR on young .
Has had spectacural retrun / Ida May got 21000 on 21 $ @ 100
born in `30 - get .04 - .05 /
30 now , slightly negative - / 20 yr old - significantly neg /
cant even deliver on that . if you work long & die young lose big /
.5 black males die < 70 , less than 5 yrs
-.25 ror for avg Blk M / working women too /
Can't even deliver on that / Transfer going on - no savings or investment
from 16 , now 3 , 2060 2 /
12.5 yrs benes now 19 /
2016 / 2020 $20B / real debt 3.5T$ / SS benes nx 75 y PV 10.5T$ /
Better reason for reform : Freedom - personal ownership .
First - all already paid get there benes .
Younger - WDC aggegated personally directed funds
lower paid could accumulate worth . If die early - heirs get .
2200 % month / .05 return 821K$ / annuity 3* SS
reverse perception and reality of Gove dependency - collectivist .
expands dependent class - witness perscription drug coverage .
at cost of personal freedom -
Impact on politics - De Toquivle - vote benes for self paid by someone
else , democracy in trouble /
Alternative : all be in investment class .
Freedom econ returns / Demogogary goes on - patently dishonest
that line of attack is becoming much less effective .
3rd rail args - Seniors do respect children & grand children .
In Dem registered district - likes to debate Dems in union halls .
Pres campaigned on in last election , will again .
10 yrs baby boomers start retiring / window closing , may have to break
/ 1134 / ?s : transition costs ? issue debt - much less than alternative
Gov guarenteed return . treasurys , verus forced .23 pay gov for return
w provide some min guarentee -
Galviston opt-out ? Bismark created - Europe heading down proposed road
Chile .95 participation - secessfull . left campaigns won't mess w .
Admin cost ? gov reg - diversivication req - professional mngrs - idx funds
should be < .005 /
Payroll tax - . / currently running .02-.03 surplus - divert that to
Deroy : discuss w Black Caucus ? Charlie Stenhome - would like to
/ 1144 / Susan Chamberlin , Cato : Dir Gvt affairs : just 4 like Pat T.
if 20 or 30 , wouldn't have to title talk "Fighting for Freedom"
uphill into wind . Polititans not core audience - world of ideas
Ed Crane : Free Radical / dismissive of Congress - / parties anything
that was good . Repubs abandoned free mkts /
Incredible expansion of Fed Law Enforcement under Patriot .
But Ed said be upbeat . End Game has come . taking place in natnl debate
Cato 1st book Social Security : inherent contradiction .
Ed & Jose - congressmen elected because of endorsement of private acnts
we will have personal accnts Because of Cato .
500 congressmen don't understand SS / Mike T : big teaching job to be done
feel pride in accomplishment / choice in Education w happen too .
Working in WDC school system / Utah tough / Anthony Williams DC forced
to support vouchers /
Entire class prevented by govn from accumulating wealth
Tax reform : Econ growth - Repubs even abandoning retoric .
DC bizaare town .
Defense of the Big Guy - Microsoft imclones / no one argues concept .
Big guys themselves go to Congress - Tobbaco cos deal preventing
independents . / FEC : free market , immediately attacked both sides
Hayak : Politicians foam on waves public opinion
No chance of working self out of job .
/ 1203 / Qs : how explain to .5 paying no tax ? humiliating to be
dependent on gov ?
Stossel : 4 freedom lovers ? Pat Senunu Flage , Paul /
clyde Wayne Crews Jr : Dir Tek Policy : Infrastructure socialism
10000 commandments out nxt mo / Make anti-trust exciting :
regs : children , spam gambleing , copy protection , carnavore ...
1st principles of liberty & commerce / is Commons and has
Anti trust - agreement to price higher - lower or the same as someone else
Govt compelled access . Heinz- Beach Nut merger -
Ice Breaker mints / Premium Ice Cream mkt seg monopoly /
"Open Access" - What's yours is Mine .
Dominent Software providers suffer open access desease .
Competitors loudest advocates .
FCC : AOL messaging domenence - future must be interoperable -
Orbitz , Google - got 1st ammendment ruling /
Competition in creation of networks .
Regs done untold damage in Electricity - Retail access choice
Competition not mean anyone can dump to gov controlled hub .
Restraints on competing w local hubs . Possibility of Independent
combinations of power & info build outs . / computer controlled
understreet snakeing . User owner consortium .
Force Access - fiber last mile - Verizon&BellSouth JV intends to .
Property may be seized . Must be no threat of Free Riders .
Regulators lose jobs .
Classical Liberals need to argue scale does not change principles .
Bell break up rational ?
Property rights - Gov picking busn models . / 1225 /
Bell breakup ? ATT was gov monopoly . had aesthetic rather than
monopoly problem . inadequate property rights causes .
Open Accesss & market design ? Electric restructuring - stranded cost
payouts on elimination of exclusive franchise . residual monopoly power
FCC media ownership ? info cannot be monopolized . tweeking edges .
did remove cross ownership papers & TV . still mkt entities .
conglomerates not necessarily stable . / 1233 /
/ 1327 / PHD Harvard : This speech B - 51 state Iraq - you break it you buy it
Devils dict : War is what god created to teach Americans Geography .
Iraqis know what to expect : 101 Airborn : 10 days in : Democrcy , Whisky , sex
Clinton not pres any more . /
Chaves , Venezuala : elected dictatorship
Putin : Chechnia : killed 100K
Constitutional Liberalism not abt structure but goals - restraints - bulwarks
begins book in 324 AD - move to Byzantium leaving bishop of Rome
beginning of separation of Church & state - first check on state power .
Rise of capitalist class - largest che
magna carta / impartial judge is core /
Nazi `23 flaued election -
Iraq : problem of oil - Norway only oil producing democracy
Trust fund states . un earned income - won't tax nor represent .
merchandize exports total that of Finland
Iraq fragmented . Yugoslavia - most efective appeals to nationism , tribalism.
Final problem : is Middle eastern country : morph into tyrannies - Nassir
Discontent gets channeled into Mosque .
How get past ? - get rule of law and capitalism 1st - then democracy
42 of 48 African countries hold election / Rather Asia capitalisms
worst signal - that we will be leaving in 3 months .
most oportunity before sorting of ruled from unruled .
Patty Aschcome - tzar of Bsonia
At this point , have to succeed in Iraq . Must internationalize
American imperialism feared . & share burden - will take
Per Bosnia , Kosovo capita 250 550 k / 250 is half US fighting force
hove oil , need water , food . cannot inch forward willy nilly .
failure not option - / 1352 /
Qs : don't have to just turn over to UN : mixed coelitions .
have to recognize what Iraqis want .
As in free trade , never get exactly what you want .
Iraq artificial construct ? not as divided as map suggests .
Bagdad Shia city in midst of shite belt . Fedral model .
avoid population xfers .
incompetent AID beauracracy ? process of reform - World Bank under Wolfenson
been inovative . Chad national oil trust - internationally audited -
spend only thru open bidding - transparency .
USAID always wanted to be parrallel State Dept . Agrees w Helms want
to remerge w State . Becomes welfare
WMD ? not just figment of Bush Imagination .
mustard gas is not marilade / `96 son in law dig under chicken coop .
was vastly exagurated . - Team B report estimates of Soviet threat .
Essential flaw ; intentions vs capabilities .
expect grusome tales , but basically a tin pot operation .
straegy must base on threat - not just intention .
Need for commercial activity .
Separation of Church & state , islamic ? Pope caused reformation split .
Islam , state has always been dominant .
failing regimes seek mulla support . Religion w adapt to state
Turkey , Bangladesh , Indonesia . can't have islamic backlash .
Bible has same ban on Usury for instance .
Modern Limited state . / 1410 /
1900 / Junto ; Jim Rogers author of "Adventure Capitalist"
Soldiers & Sailors Club, 283 Lexington Avenue, 2nd floor
Junto / / 1915 / BBC-TV guy doing project on Ayn Rand / film Vic
Bob Pritzker : dancing class in lower ESB / guide life by reason
rebirth every morning / wasn't a perfect person / cornered by Nathanial
Brandon - thought spying /
VN : 2 encounters w Paul Volker in last 6 mo / @ bed of sports writer
book on tape w players in own voices - no tape recorder or computer .
Henry Kaufman : had had 3 dinners w Volker / purpose of stock mkt is to be
worried / Visited Century club - CT jewish mavins / Greenspan , Rubin
why so many - even libertarians hate business .
Larry Parks : FAME.org - 4 page speech by 3 out of 4 Supreme Ct winning Lawyer
Martha Steward vs Hillary trading / Sid Bass " i'm in love"
Alan : City Taxes - lack of planning on your part is not emergency on mine
NJ is disaster - CT bad too . City / move business out of city .
Steve Kagann : taxes & jobs inversely related . don't even need moral issue
defacto coup - NYS taken over by Unions . trial , teachers & health care
significant fed cut / all but 1 NY rep & senator voted against cut .
rates - we pay more rel cost of living . divs & gains significant /
Manhattan Inst - .9 of increaes w b paid downstate .
municipal workers unions - tricele down - what left after govt /
/ 2003 / VN : Rogers , new father : successful investment partnership .
negotiated .5 reduction in rate @ Russian Hotel . Not charging speaker fee
did on motor cycle . Iceland `99 . / 2251 /
/ ======================== / fri.jun.20030606 / ======================== /
2000 / "Springtime On Planet Love Party" / Bowery Poetry Club (308 Bowery ,
across from CBGB's. ) Libertarians meet punk hop / I plan to speak
/ ======================== / wed.jun.20030611 / ======================== /
- 14 / APL2003 San Diego
1930-2130 / TANGO MANGO Jak Karako , Director : Tango Dance Performance by
10 Dancers with Unforgettable Songs from Around the World ;
821 United Nations Plaza, NYC ; First Avenue & 46th Street / Second Floor
RSVP: (212) 980-2030 , Suggested Ticket Price $20 At the Door
All proceeds and donations go to Educational Outreach Fund of Unisun World.
/ ======================== / mon.jun.20030616 / ======================== /
/ 1015 / CSPAN , Fdn for Middle East Peace : Akava Eldar Ha'aretz pol
It's the occupation , stupid . roadmap classified ?
25 israeli , 70 palestinian . "Likudniks"
"israel was never very strict with the Geneva conventions"
/ ======================== / tue.jun.20030617 / ======================== /
- 19 / SIA TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT EXHIBITION Hilton New York , 6th @ 53rd
/ ======================== / fri.jul.20030711 / ======================== /
CSPAN2 / .65 of Fed College aid spent on regs & paperwork
/ ======================== / mon.sep.20030901 / ======================== /
/ 1354 / MNN Ch34 : Converstations with Harold Hudson Channer :
Energy industry economist Bob Blohm :
The energy grid was more socialized by so called
deregulation . Bush et al "Tory Socialists" .
/ ======================== / thu.sep.20030911 / ======================== /
/ 1302 / Restricting the Market of Ideas . "GETTING MONEY OUT OF POLITICS"
/ ======================== / thu.mar.20030313 / ======================== /
1730 - 19 / NYU Math Finance Seminar 251 Mercer , Rm 102 : Greg Duffee ;
Science et Finance, Capital Fund Management. "Time variation in the
Covariance between Stock Returns and Consumption Growth".
/ ======================== / thu.mar.20030327 / ======================== /
18 - 1930 / Andre and Judy de Zanger Creativity Salon :
John Osborn : "Creative Problem Solving" - (The original "Brainstorming
Model") @ NY Public library , 112 E. 96
/ ======================== / fri.apr.20030404 / ======================== /
/ 1512 / CSPAN64 / 030328 / Diana Buttu , PLO Legal Advisor : Brilliant
analysis of Palestinian Colonization and Bantustanation . 66 new settlements
since Sharon / 200k settlers doubled to 400k in last decade .
NATO "peace keepers" in Israel . Money cannot go to Palestinian Authority .
/ ======================== / mon.apr.20030407 / ======================== /
Linux on Wall Street Roosevelt Hotel , NYC
/ ======================== / sat.apr.20030412 / ======================== /
1800 / Professor Lawrence Lessing , Stanford Law School :
"The internet promised an extraordinary opportunity for innovation and
creativity. Changes in the law are about to take that promise away."
The Professor will describe the threat and propose a strategy for resistance
at a lecture , free and open to the public without reservation, called "Free
Culture: The Struggle to Liberate Creativity and the Internet from the Law,"
is at 6PM in Cooper Union's Great Hall, E. 7th Street at Third Avenue. Get
there early to get a good seat. The hall was built in 1860 and has many
seats with seriously obstructed view.
/ ======================== / tue.apr.20030415 / ======================== /
/ 1204 / CSPAN2 : AEI : Richard Rodriguez / The first Brown Moment :
when the Euro and the Afro met in the iris of an Indian woman .
Induced thought : The 3 in the Axis of Liberators are US and
the 2 great Colonial powers of the New World .
/ ======================== / thu.apr.20030417 / ======================== /
1730 - 19 / NYU Math Finance Seminar 251 Mercer , Rm 102 ; Sanford
Grossman : Quantitative Financial Strategies
/ ======================== / thu.may.20030515 / ======================== /
Bobby Birchfield of McConnel team lame trying to argue that state elections don't effect subsequent federal elections . Accepts notion of "Federal interest" right to interfere . What a mess . This is time which should have been alloted to the libertarian Ron Paul group . Even the fact that Stevens & BB are arguing where in fine print of the law , eg , 323B2V4 or 323A , a particular limitation resides shows the total corrupt nature of this attempt to infringe individual and associations political expression .
/ 1331 / Olsen arguing for Government / Scalia excellent - but even he does not express trust in the market place to think for ourselves even against voices with the biggest megaphone .
/ 1:39 / Seth Waxman slime ball twisting of Alan Simpson statement .
Paul Clement Dep SG raked over illogical division between Press and Joe mimeograph machine by Scalia and Kenedy .
/ ======================== / fri.sep.20030912 / ======================== /
MSNBC Question of the Day:
Are you willing to give up some civil rights for better security? My answer
The trouble with fighting for human freedom is that one spends most of one's time defending scoundrels. For it is against scoundrels that oppressive laws are first aimed, and oppression must be stopped at the beginning if it is to
be stopped at all.
False dicotomy. Each of the freedoms of the Bill of Rights -
from no Theocracies , to the right to defend our selves with personal
arms , to right to a jury of peers , are treaties between us designed
ensure domestic tranquility . It is our Government which is creating the
insecurity which feeds its increasing suppression of our daily lives .
/ ======================== / mon.sep.20030915 / ======================== /
From WinXPnews QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
-H.L. Mencken (1880-1956)
/ ======================== / thu.sep.20030918 / ======================== /
Antiprohibitionist.org newsletter :
3129 05/06/2003 / U.S.A. STATISTICS / REUTERS
A study by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration
says that in 2002, 19.5 million Americans used drugs (15.9 m. in 2001).
Of these, 14,6 m. or just under 75% used marijuana, 2 m or just over 10%
cocaine, 1.2 m or just over 6% amphetamines or ecstasy, and 567,000 or just
under 3% crack, and the rest, about 6%, other substances.
/ ======================== / tue.sep.20030923 / ======================== /
0833 / C-SPAN / Judy Fahys Salt Lake Tribune / Environmental reporter : Balanced
/ 1113 / Jeffrey : Torch Energy / Webcast /
Dillon : Pipes Report News Letter
/ 1120/ Chuck - used to be buying
properties - now basically drillers here :
· Contango Oil (MCF)
Ken : 4 yrs old : must be lowest cost provider in cyclical mkt .
value creation / Destruction / from "turning to the righ of the exploration
drill bit "
finding cost < = 1.50 $ i $4 gas word %mcre / + 1 to well head
3.8 people . /
lost on hedging / Sold properties / thought price going \/ . NOT /
virtually all of personal net worth @ risk -
" It's EPS stupid " / denominator as important as numerator
retired .25 of their stock / See new 10-K /
Salary : $150k .
No loans to any personell
No CEO bonus unless profitable
Ideal Company :
Reserve / Production < 1 / not conventional wisdom / $40M cash flow
Reinvestment risk / Multiple impact ideas w min cap @ risk /
Deep Water / LNG
Shareholder friendly / is illiquid /
Ken & outside BoD own .58
Buffet 2002 ann rpt : any co worth buying w have to pay taxes -
Qs ? Sol : outside Gulf of Mex ? not really . Lot of 3d seismic -
$3M computers in last 6 mo / LNG plant building in Freeport /
Crude very vulnerable - -> low 20s / Gas @ 2.15 equivalent to coal
/ 1138 /
· Cadence Resources (CDNR) / partner Ryan
w Breedis o o Argentina - partner / Oil & Gas development
in proven production aresa - expects bull mkt /
chief Geoligist in 70s / was chief geo @ UnoCal /
Utah Company - was in Copper
3 projects ;
Red River Arch Wilbarger Cnty TX / $100,000 cash flow % mo /
Projection @ 25$ / Bbl / cost 90k to drill .75 sucess /
W Bridas of Argentina - Drill
45-50 well on
Natural Gas in NW LA / costs 800k$ / .5M compltion / 3 yr rev 2.3 m % well
$5M tot % well /
N Michagan Antrhim - unconventional - 7500 producing /
long production - since WW2 / 10 wells in production /
well defined stat supply
US oil peaked in `71 / 5.5MB % D , declining /
Produce more than discover /
Gas dif than oil - all new power / 21 -> 26 in 4 yrs / > 30 TCf in 2010 /
in 2 yrs - rapid growth - geograp diversity - / plan to list AMEX /
Finding cost < $1 % MCF /
/ 1155 /
· Double Eagle Petroleum (DBLE)
Steve - Rocky Mntn leases - ( Gas )
Drilling development wells - Expect jump in revs on increased
production & > 4$ gas
Cost LOE $ % mcres .73 down from 1.25
7 employees / wells to drill thru 2007
Researves /\ in WY CO , \/ CA AK
Pinedale anacline / Buffet bought Williams pipeline to CA /
has doubled capacity - 1 well % 40 acres - Borowing @ .04 / doubling # of wells
some 14000 ft / going to 5 acre wells . Rather equivalent to Wind farms
Anadarko in region / Cow Creek / 15 B cf gas since `59 / very artisian -
1M % day w lots of water /
Sand flow exponential / coal produces only after dewater / Drunkard's Wash
Qs / Chuck / environmental problems in Rocky's ? Power River Basin - Hired ex gov
/ Pipeline capacity Sublet Cnty ( pinedale ) ? 1.7 BCF % Day -
WY will not exceed last yrs production /
EIS stmnts ? system project / currently 4-5 in progress in WY - another hurdle
clicking along - Industry paying for quick studies / Study completion Late `04
/ 1219 / CS : Pindale : Ultra petroleum leased big chunks before others
Galaxy a legacy
· Galaxy Energy (GAXI)
Marc Bruner St : Fndr Ultra on AMEX > 700M$ mkt cap /
Non conventional Gas -
Bruner concept : HorizonExplorationFund Germany $500M euro Swiss /
mainly for Coal Bet Methane /
Credit Swiss $.5M into Galaxy - no dilution / 200 - 1600 feet !
Galaxy - .15 carried interest , $10k % well fee / .5 LookBack - can
purchase at cost .
Powder river studies completed - up to 77000 wells up from 12000 .
Buffet pipe reduce cost from $2 to $.3 % mcf /
Quicksilver KWK - - if execute - can be 2.5 as cap efficient as KWK /
Also in Romania & Australia /
Qs ? Stein : cherry pick ? must take year's drilling as pkg - they operating /
/ 1233 / Chuck : drill where know gas is - only ? profitability .
Australia Coalbed Methane huge ( 4M ) acrage
· Gastar Exploration (TSE: YGA)
Ross Porter : TSE YGA / GSREF.PK us listing / ( been whacked by OPEC 2x )
140E6 % 98E6 / mkt cap /
Just gained E TX conventional Bossier Sand 2 unusually hi preasure well fro
`80s / Sands beneath Bosure - own .12 of $13M cost well / 1st well
not mechanically sound /
Terbidic failed - ( underwater avalanch ) @ 18000 - 20000 . 120 days to drill .
Randal McDouy - independent assesor / 80 160 acr / cost 8-9 M % well
/ $8% share value
FK well - // 600 BCF min reserves /
Deep play in W VA / flow @ 50 - 250 MCF % D artesian /
Gastar has seismic / cataloged 100 locations of fractures / cost $3.5M each -
12000 ft seizmic - sediment down to 20k ft / .2 cost to NYMeX /
TCF discovery - cost $4m /
Another area , exploratory well $300k , then 50 if work .
SW Australia - good busn environment - / Largest emither of CO2 % capita
Mid East LGN negotiations drag on / AU / signed Kyoto / English Law /
Netherland Sewell Assoc esti 17 TCF in coals .
Gippsland Bason - pilot soon /
/ 1300 /
Qs ? Coalbed Methane tek ? now JM Huber - tek well understood /
Canada 15yrs behind , AU ? probably ahead of CD /
How much of WY props end up owning ? .5
/ 1317 / Lunch Talk /
Barry Sagal : Energy sector / John W was wise sage - Data vs knowledge - wisdom
heard micro - now macro - Global : choke points / BP seminar -
China & India - China 2%3 coal / 10 yrs ago became consuer , now ahead Japan
growing .1 / India same - traffic conjestion - consumerism at its best .
every 2 yrs 500K B % day increment /
NG in crisis in NA - increasing permanent volitility in mkt .
not yet seen price induced supply increase .
LNG already significant in Asia , fledgling here .
Unconventional NG is the story - resource base morphing into reserve base
Russia - resource in east - Use in West .
UKos - Will have to reorient toward East / Not yet have an exploration
led industry in
need to reabsorb Iraq . Iran mulahs can't live for ever
Brazil , even India finds /
CD Tarsands - single largest over next 50 yrs .
Center of gravity of supply shifting to privatized
.9 controled by NLCs /
WY well cost from $4M now 10 15000ft multizone now $3.5M
JW : 10 Drs , or engineers - believe ; investment advisors - run .
/ 1334 /
/ ======================== / mon.oct.20031013 / ======================== /
19 / Nat Henthoff 675 6th B&N / 1904 / War on Bill of Rights
magic lantern key stroke capture - encroachment by men of zeal /
history of constituion least taught - / Steven Brill bk : After
documetation of non-access to lawyers /
section 215 / resistance building / 185 towns now passed BoR protections
AK HI VT - direct local police to report on feds .
Ashcroft bringing parts Patriot 2 . Bill Moyers website
justice dept even leaked / Dick Army : Libertarian - said JoD oo control
Feingold only Senator voted against Patriot act /
Sharpton 1st candidate : Dems have larengitis
Nov 1st week : Jose Pedia vs Rumsfeld - held w/o charges or lawyer
dirty bomb - / amicus from Fed circuit ct judges & bar - to Pres
" enemy combatant " / want it moved frm 2nd to 4th circuit /
Yassir Mamdi - Dumar / Comey on Padia case - now 2nd in Justice
Clinton : War on Terrorism w never end .
future kids w not know anything else . twilight of liberty .
Coentel probe jury in `50s .
BoR cmtties goes back to Sam Adams - general search warrent .
Raliegh Tavern VA , meeting w Jefferson -
2002 02 Nancy in Northhampton MA bordc.org /
Chicago just passed / Stuck in NYC cause of G.Miller
/ 1924 / very dangerous on both sides - only some religious - some nationalistic
C.Powell : war against civilization
Justicfe Kennedy : the constitution need regeration each generation
Sandra O'Conner : most powerfull person in country
/ 1927 / Qs : Things getting bad - weapons chks .
stripping of citizenship / conservative libertarian unions strong .
Distric Judge in Padia ? trying to let padia have wittnesses .
Judge in Mussia wanting witness - 6th ammedment right -
District cts been pretty good .
CL Butch Otter ID rep - voted against - Ron Paul - Kucinich + > 100 Repubs
got 213 part of non notification - stopped the funding .
Structural changes ? dimminution of sep of powers - notion that exec has
powers not reviewable by court /
Media managing news . If Voice less voiceless ? ACLU list of why unconstitu
press ignored . Wash Post being harsh on Ashcroft / Andrew Nepolitano
only constitutional correspondant on TV -
Educated in our schools . 24 hr media cycle a problem .
Using torture . Synergy between print & TV personas
Letters to Ed most read . / Pedia Hamdi
ACLU started after 1st WW . Wilson suspended 1st amndmt but had said
"can't depend on gov to protect liberty "
Mulkowski AK :
Social Welfare State erosion of privacy ? no - need fair research
CD & England long waits .
Saddam >< Al Quida ? is some evidence - WNYC - Brian Leherer
Where are the under 30s ? low voting . more & more in teens & 20s .
intersting goes across usual grain - Educational system
Brennan : how do you get words off page into lives ?
W side 5th grade sharp . Freedom Forum : 1st amendment highschools
Principal has press conf like T Blair each week .
Colleges ? Political Correctness - speech codes - afraid to say anything
Fndn Indiv Rights in Edu ( NH on board ) .
Which dem canditate do something on BoR ?
Clark & Dean like Gore - change clothes every day
Edwards only one who mentioned Padia . Bush tone deaf on rights .
TX passed unanomous pub defender office because locals .
Nader may run as Dem ? Kinda late .
Last Q : Recall on Fed level ? problem w recall : Madison beat the king , problem
problem now is the majority . Likes British system . / 2004 /
/ ======================== /
From: Bob Armstrong < email@example.com >
Subject: Re: [LPNY DISCUSS] Re: Bad Trials
Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2003 12:24:04 -0400
To: < firstname.lastname@example.org >
On Tue, 14 Oct 2003 13:29:02 -0000, rhymetofree6 wrote:
> I do not suggest anyone endorse the notion that particular people got
> bad trials. The issue is whether trials have gone bad on us because
> the people who run them do their own thing.
I got over to see Nat Hentoff talk about his book
The War on the Bill of Rights and the Gathering Resistance
and introduced myself as the Manhattan Libertarian DAD and reminded
him that we had spoken a few times during my quixotic run at Jerrold
Nadler in 2000 , which he remembered .
Hentoff mentioned Libertarians several times during his talk , including
Ron Paul and Butch Otto (rep-ID) by name . My ( raw ) notes are at
I commented to Nat that his mentions were much kinder than that of
Tom Tomorrow ( ThisModernWorld.com ) at a big performance
art event focused on the managed media at Judson Church on Washington Sq
last Thursday . Tomorrow , whose showed not only funny but prescient
comics he did back during Bush pere , had one strip on social security
showing fat cat capitalists gloating that SS money was better
spent on their own pate and Dom Perignon . He got a big laugh saying
now this was the real Libertarian message .
After the performances , which included one guy who , after a video
montage of banal news anchors , poked a needle in his arm and dripped
blood over a sheet of glass which he then karate chopped , I sought
out Tomorrow and thanked him for at least mentioning Libertarians to
such a large crowd . It indicated we were making it onto people's
radar . But , of course , I said his perception was shallow . He
said the perception on the web is just that LPers are Republicans
who want to smoke pot . Anyway , I've since sent him Harry Browne's
recent Liberals And War to educate him .
As I commented previously , Mumia , whatever the merits , ain't a NY
issue . If the NY.LP wants to examine a bad case which is local , how
about checking out the case of David Wong in Suffolk County . I got
a brochure I've uploaded to http://cosy.com/Liberty/FreeDavidWang.pdf .
I don't know anything else about the case . But this is Local .
Hentoff discussed more generalizable and constitutionally serious
cases of the Bush executive overriding of habeas corpus , and in fact
all civil court procedure in the cases of Yaser Esam Hamdi and
Jose Padilla . These are more insidious in terms of their implications
because they are intentional policy , not idiosyncratic miscarriages .
Bob Armstrong -- http://CoSy.com -- 212-285-1864
Return our Right to Relax :
Computing Environment : http://CoSy/CoSy/
A WTC vision : http://CoSy.com/CoSy/ConicAllConnect/
Liberty : http://CoSy.com/Liberty.htm
10/14/2003 1:58:37 PM
/ ======================== / tue.oct.20031014 / ======================== /
The Donald and Paula Smith Family Foundation Presents a debate
The American Empire: Effectively Imposing Liberty or Doomed Overreaching?
Dinesh D'Souza Fellow at the Hoover Institution,
Author of New York Times Best Seller What's So Great About America?
Jonathan Schell Fellow at the Nation Institute,
Author of The Unconquerable World
Ted Galen Carpenter Vice President Cato Institute,
Author of Peace & Freedom
Moderator Lawrence J. Korb Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress
/ 1842 /
Larry - Now have troops in 125 countries .
AARP w track down Bin Ladin when turns 50 this yr .
Ted Carpenter , Cato : Peace & Freedom /
promiscuous global interventionalist . Imperialist oo the closet
400B$ budget , next Russia 55B$ - more than all others combined
used mil 9 times in 14 yrs . Outside US people recognise mil is our first
resort . Now occupying 2 countries .
Not just preemptive war - outline of expansion - aid .
Defenders say benevolent . Now focal point for lot of rage .
"In your face" attitude in moslem countries
in state of Perpetual war . $400B mil budget large opportunity cost .
Add $79B + $89B for Iraq alone . / Endangering volunteer army .
Stressed out active forces . / Domestically - inevitable flow of power to center
"Empire need an emperor" / need to return to being object of admiration
/ 18658 / Dinesh D`Souza : Hoover : Like Henry VIII said to a wife " I won't
keep you long" /
Is US empire ? yes . not just mil , but econ & culture .
previous : Tyranny & plunder - US not meet these criteria
we believe in ideals . Self directed life .
Freedom of speech & religion - we should impose .
Attack from left and libertarian Bucannanite right .
" Can't be imposed " Libertarians say contradictory .
dead wrong - did in Germany - in our revolution - liberty requires framework
Can't trust US to do it honestly . - kernal of truth . agrees what gov does
does badly . But defense necessary .
Defeat of Nazis & USSR . Liberated Kuwait , Afganistan ?
Worth kicking out tin pot dictators ? Planting seeds of democracy where
never known it . "perhaps later in Iran" . / 1914 /
Don Sifell : Nation / Agrees w Cato / Conservatives : aprobrium
all 3 of us are saying yes US is imperial power . Bush admin is imperial .
Already has been harmful to US . Bush @ "West Point" : intends to keep
mil strength beyond challenge that others can just do trade .
Preemption & Regime change / Bush : suicide if don't attack anyone
who may develop weapons w/i few years .
The Chatterbox on the Hudson will die - conceit of international peace
thru international law .
New department of nation building .
Used to be trotskiite left .
Disarmament wars - empire /
Empire from beginning of century now history .
Iraq policemann : Wash Post : In my heart we w guirillas .
Non-proliferation not working causing opposite .
/ 1914 / TC : DD confuses influence w dominance . not trying to remake
planet in own image . But answer not in international institutions , but
must be realistic abt UN assoc of World's governments . UN needed as
mediators but not substitute for US sovernty . Need restrained Foreign pol.
Overlords resented .
DD : Feel like Mosquito at nudist colony - don't know where to begin .
Others assuming US empire like Romans etc . what other distributes food
while warring . Started w guys flying into buildings .
Bin Ladin facing threat of self directed life .
Traditionally force should be used as last resort . But need preemption .
MAD obsolete .
We are not going to invade Iran or N Korea .
Squid like logic - Saddam came to power by sword . What is his legitamacy
moral cover for allowing .
JonathinS : Iraq were not guys who knocked down towers . Not issue of
seding authority in UN - should inject authority in UN .
Should be international police work . W not be able to control 50 odd
countries capable of nuks . DD in company of Rouseau .
140K troops not infection . govs chose democracies by selves .
/ ======================== /
From: Bob Armstrong
Subject: Re: [lpny_manhattan] The Donald & Paula Smith Family Foundation
Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2003 14:22:58 -0400
To: < email@example.com >
On Tue, 30 Sep 2003 18:52:18 -0000, Jak Jacob wrote:
> The Donald & Paula Smith Family Foundation debate
> The American Empire:
> Effectively Imposing Liberty or Doomed Overreaching?
I got to the debate , a full house , last night .
My raw notes are posted on my blogity-blog at
Dinesh D'Sousa was flanked by Cato on his left and The Nation
on his right . And his logic , tho invoking the American ideal
of "the Self-directed Individual" , was Alpine Lace .
During the Q&A , I got in one of the last questions . Necessarily
paring down to a single point , I said ( approximately ) :
I'm Bob Armstrong , Manhattan Libertarian DAD , Drug Affairs Director .
And of all your inconsistent thoughts I'd like to ask just this .
You apparently don't live in here in NYC where a third of the population
has just been criminalized in the extension of the War on some drugs
to enjoying the herb that made America in bars that chose to allow it .
Is this the freedom you intend to impose on the rest of the world ?
It got strong applause - I believe , the only question that did .
Given the format , it never got answered .
At the reception afterwards ( snagged 3 Hinnies ) , several people
complemented me on the question , and I took the time to get one
signature on the smoking petition .
Bob Armstrong -- http://CoSy.com -- 212-285-1864
Restore our Right to Relax :
Blog since '97 : http://cosy.com/current.htm#Current
Liberty : http://CoSy.com/Liberty.htm
10/15/2003 1:54:28 PM
/ ======================== / wed.oct.20031015 / ======================== /
Wednesday, October 15, 7:00 p.m. – 9:00 p.m.
"Non-Partisan Elections: Empowering Voters or Dismantling Democracy?"
Debate sponsored by the NY Young Republicans Club, DL21C and the NY Sun
The Shelburne Murray Hotel, 303 Lexington Avenue
/ 1918 /
Alan Gardner - head Charter revision
9 of 51 already no compete / 5 not even primary /
28 no primary anyway / 141000 of 5E6 voted in Sept /
in those w primaries - every encumbant won .
We have had a monopoly -
Howard Wolfson w H Clinton & Shumer
" eliminating party primaries " . Miniapolis changed '79
participation decreased . / Chicago - went to lowest ever
Looked at 45 biggest cities - notion that low voting means failure
Democrats run open primarys . Will favor wealthy candidates .
w undermine campaign fin law .
/ 1936 / Fred Seigel / .055 in primary - Howard selective in
wealthy candidates - Bloomberg . People satisfied ?
.6 of ballot access litigation in country in NY . Gifford Miller
People make for the exits .
Council- dog leash length & cyber cafes .
Campaign Fin - 2%3 went to un opposed candidates .
more likely to be murdered than defeated for reelection .
Reason why have 1 fiscal crisis % decade .
Will open up 1.3 M / have to win in second round w .5 /
common sense .
/ 1943 / Denny Farrel / Rather be watching west wing
Even indians left the city . Party competition - Ashcroft - chaney Bush
DeLay - Is problem in NYC . System is open . Urban myth Douglas Kelder .
knock off kitchen petitions not just technialities .
Choice - 830000 non afilliated . had the / punish the 2.7M !
Could have same day registration & vote . / DF ran against party .
Giuliani tax cut caused bubble - .
Qs : Wolfson & Farrell asking :
What do people wait for in general election ?
1M have levt since 2000 . DF ratios change over time .
Common Cause says marching order from mayor : AG : Puzzled by those grps .
lowest turnout off election - UFT petition being fought .
Small election bodes against proposition -
Qs: FS : Alan Jennings , Anatoli Eisenberg - fraud .
vacant office elections non partisan .
/ ======================== / wed.oct.20031015 / ======================== /
Lisa Borland, Evnine-Vaughan Associates
A theory of non-Gaussian option pricing: capturing the smile and the skew
We introduce a new model of stock returns that results in fat-tailed (power-law) Student distributions rather than Gaussians. These distributions are characterized by an index q, related to the Tsallis generalized entropy that we use to model the evolution of fluctuations. For q =1 the standard Black-Scholes case is recovered. Based on this model, which is a statistical feedback process for returns, one finds a martingale representation and simple closed form pricing equations for European calls. Most empirical distributions of returns are well-fitted with q around 1.5. Using that value of q in the option pricing formulas yields results which match empirically observed prices and volatility smiles very well (for example for options on currency futures), using just one value of sigma across all strikes. In a simple manner, we also show how this model can be extended to account for skew.
Parsimonious model \ here 1 volility & 1 skew param
Fokker-Plank Eau / dP/dO = d2o/dt2 /
dO = P[ O ] ^ 1-q ) do / q generally > 1 /
Collective behavior of traders - stat feedback process =
NonLinear fokker Plank
Student(Tsallis) Dist / - non-extensive entropy /
q = 1 is std model / q= 1.43 fits Nadaq 2001 .
w skew / dS = uSdt + sigmaS^a dO
q=1 recover Cox & Ross , multi-D particle .
porous medium difuussion - w clogs or scowering .
price dependent vol - barrier dependencies .
q= 1.5 ~ equivalent T w 3 deg free .
/ ======================== / thu.nov.20031106 / ======================== /
/ 1000 - 1300 / Friedland MicroCap Conference Harvard Club
/ 1830 / The Donald & Paula Smith Family Foundation : Debate : Media Bias:
Is the News Fair and Balanced & Fit to Print?
/ 1843 / Don Smith / Arron 286th of 30000 in marathon / next 2nd Tuesday Dec 9
Nation under God
Moderator : Terence Smith : Media Correspondent, PBS' The NewsHour with
/ 1846 / btwn 2 authors - WDC : Hollywood on Potomic . CBS collapse on Reagan
series . Viacom media ownership issues before congress . WDC - capital of
: ( Ford Carter Nixon ; hear no , see no , evil ) .
News bias towards news .
Joe Conason , Columnist for the New York Observer and Salon,
Author : Big Lies: The Right-Wing Propaganda Machine and How It Distorts the
review : right wing mendacity .
/ central theme : Media not have liberal bias . 1st just talking News Media
feels overwhelming conservative bias bought w own money / NPR 2nd after
Limbaugh . News Hour fair & Balanced . /
Conservatives stay angry even when winning /
Murdock own Harper Colins - passed on Ann Coulter Slander / Liberal published
William McGowan , Senior fellow , Manhattan Institute,
Author : Coloring The News NatnlPressClub award for book -
picketed by Hispanics .
review : Awkward facts - illiberal press restricting rree flow of ideas .
/ 1904 / 250 pages of facts . Diversity crusade over last decade - minorities
in media positions . impact on coverage - / Jason Blair NYT fiasco .
Culture wars -
JC : Condolisa Rice : diversity dificult . / New Republic - 2 cases
WMcG : bias toward Identity Politics . Reporters Very lop sided self
identification as liberal . Top 7 columnists are conservative .
JC : Owners hire the editors . Told Al Franken after Fox lost F & B law suit
that they should change slogan to what Judge said : Totally without Merit .
WMcG : No story abt forced bilingual ed in CA / couldn't get reporters to
understand their reality . Edtior said going after upwardly mobile
JC : Commercial decision / Unions most under reported . pursuing mkt